Steady pace of export growth seen in first half
PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s export performance is expected to maintain a steady pace of growth in the first half of 2018 after a strong start to the year.
According to analysts, the optimistic outlook on the country’s exports growth would be underpinned by buoyant global trade activities and the recovery of commodity prices.
Data from the International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti) showed that the country’s export growth in January rebounded to 17.9% year-on-year from 4.7% in the preceding month, beating consensus forecast of a 13% growth.
Import growth, on the other hand, accelerated to 11.6% from 7.9% in December.
Consequently, Malaysia’s trade performance in January resulted in the surplus widening to RM9.71bil from RM7.3bil in the preceding month.
According to Miti, the country’s export growth at the start of the year was underpinned by expansion in all major sectors and increased trade with its major trading partners.
Nomura Research noted that the rebound in trade in January may mean a robust external environment.
Commenting on Malaysia’s export growth in January, Nomura Research explained in a note yesterday: “This was not just because of a favourable base effect, and suggests external demand remains solid in sequential terms.”
Similarly, MIDF Research expects Malaysia’s external trade performance to continue expanding at a steady pace in 2018, supported by buoyant global trade activities, rising commodity prices and the receding threat of protectionism.
“We predict global trade activities in the first quarter of 2018 to remain on an upbeat momentum, albeit at a moderating rate amid unfavourable base effects,” MIDF Research said.
The brokerage pointed to the expansionary mode of the manufacturing condition and activity as one of the reasons for its optimistic outlook.
Overall, MIDF Research forecasts Malaysia’s export growth to average at 9.3% in 2018, slower than the 18.9% of 2017.
“Underpinned by the continuous buoyant momentum in global trade activities, further recovery in commodity prices and the receding protectionism threat, we foresee Malaysia’s exports expanding by 9.3% this year.
“The moderating pace is mainly due to an unfavourable base effect and in tandem with the expectation of a slight slowdown in overall business performance,” it noted.
However, it cautioned that downside risks on Malaysia’s trade performance remain on protectionist threats, geopolitical tensions and downward changes in commodity prices, as well as policy uncertainties in developed countries.
In January, exports of manufactured goods saw the most growth of 20.4%, driven by an increased shipment of electrical and electronic products, which surged by 27.1%.
During the month in review, exports of mining goods grew 8.5%, while shipments of agriculture goods rose 6.2% on higher exports of palm oil and palm oil-based agriculture products.
On imports, intermediate goods and capital goods fell 1.7% and 3.1%, respectively, while imports of consumption goods grew 9.8%.
...
The content is a snapshot from Publisher. Refer to the original content for accurate info. Contact us for any changes.
Comments